Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 6.696689e-05 0.000080 0.000095 0.000112 0.000130 0.000150 0.000173
2025-02-16 5.199224e-05 0.000070 0.000091 0.000117 0.000148 0.000183 0.000225
2025-02-23 4.228749e-05 0.000062 0.000086 0.000117 0.000155 0.000200 0.000254
2025-03-02 3.251016e-05 0.000053 0.000078 0.000113 0.000157 0.000210 0.000277
2025-03-09 2.555248e-05 0.000045 0.000072 0.000109 0.000158 0.000218 0.000296
2025-03-16 2.098706e-05 0.000040 0.000068 0.000109 0.000163 0.000231 0.000320
2025-03-23 1.769234e-05 0.000037 0.000066 0.000109 0.000168 0.000244 0.000346
2025-03-30 1.455411e-05 0.000033 0.000063 0.000108 0.000172 0.000255 0.000367
2025-04-06 1.152857e-05 0.000029 0.000058 0.000105 0.000172 0.000261 0.000383
2025-04-13 9.591489e-06 0.000027 0.000056 0.000104 0.000176 0.000272 0.000406
2025-04-20 7.157573e-06 0.000023 0.000051 0.000099 0.000173 0.000273 0.000414
2025-04-27 5.888405e-06 0.000021 0.000049 0.000099 0.000176 0.000283 0.000435
2025-05-04 4.485683e-06 0.000018 0.000047 0.000098 0.000179 0.000294 0.000460
2025-05-11 3.814688e-06 0.000017 0.000047 0.000102 0.000190 0.000316 0.000499
2025-05-18 3.029783e-06 0.000016 0.000046 0.000103 0.000196 0.000332 0.000530
2025-05-25 1.995151e-06 0.000013 0.000041 0.000098 0.000194 0.000335 0.000544
2025-06-01 1.306292e-06 0.000011 0.000038 0.000095 0.000193 0.000340 0.000560
2025-06-08 9.074682e-07 0.000010 0.000036 0.000094 0.000196 0.000350 0.000585
2025-06-15 6.515461e-07 0.000009 0.000035 0.000095 0.000201 0.000364 0.000614
2025-06-22 4.173132e-07 0.000008 0.000034 0.000094 0.000203 0.000374 0.000637
2025-06-29 2.235247e-07 0.000007 0.000031 0.000091 0.000203 0.000379 0.000653
2025-07-06 1.300962e-07 0.000006 0.000030 0.000091 0.000206 0.000390 0.000679
2025-07-13 4.213721e-08 0.000005 0.000027 0.000086 0.000202 0.000389 0.000686